Promising prospects
Published:
11 September 2024
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Data on the UK local authorities with the most 'promising prospects' for 25 to 44 year olds – measured by levels of education, professional work, and earnings. The index measures how well young people from similar socio-economic backgrounds do in education and the labour market.
Visualisation
Index of 'promising prospects', by local authority (UK)
203 local authority areas in the UK are put into 5 categories based on their ‘index of promising prospects’ composite scores. The categories are not equally sized – the middle category is larger because most local authorities are very near the average. Areas with the highest scores have the most favourable prospects for young people.
Data
| Region | Index of 'promising prospects' ('Z-scores') | Group |
|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen city | 0.07 | Middle Group |
| Aberdeenshire | 0.09 | Middle Group |
| Angus | -0.60 | Middle Group |
| Argyll and Bute Islands | -0.32 | Middle Group |
| Barking and Dagenham | 0.26 | Middle Group |
| Barnet | 2.74 | Most Favourable |
| Barnsley | -1.79 | Least Favourable |
| Bath and North East Somerset | 0.25 | Middle Group |
| Bedford | 1.80 | Favourable |
| Bexley | 1.30 | Favourable |
| Birmingham | -0.38 | Middle Group |
| Blackburn with Darwen | -0.48 | Middle Group |
| Blackpool | -0.12 | Middle Group |
| Blaenau Gwent | -0.58 | Middle Group |
| Bolton | -0.22 | Middle Group |
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 0.38 | Middle Group |
| Bracknell Forest | 0.75 | Middle Group |
| Bradford | -0.86 | Middle Group |
| Brent | 2.60 | Most Favourable |
| Bridgend | -0.77 | Middle Group |
| Brighton and Hove | 1.22 | Favourable |
| Bristol | -0.13 | Middle Group |
| Bromley | 0.95 | Middle Group |
| Buckinghamshire | 1.83 | Favourable |
| Bury | -0.42 | Middle Group |
| Caerphilly | -0.92 | Middle Group |
| Calderdale | -0.22 | Middle Group |
| Cambridgeshire county council | -0.46 | Middle Group |
| Camden and City of London | 2.07 | Most Favourable |
| Cardiff | -0.45 | Middle Group |
| Carmarthenshire county council | -0.32 | Middle Group |
| Central Bedfordshire | 1.42 | Favourable |
| Ceredigion county council | -0.52 | Middle Group |
| Cheshire East | 1.01 | Favourable |
| Cheshire West and Chester | -0.59 | Middle Group |
| Edinburgh city | 0.82 | Middle Group |
| Clackmannanshire | -0.73 | Middle Group |
| Conwy | -0.26 | Middle Group |
| Cornwall and Isles of Scilly | -1.40 | Least Favourable |
| Coventry | -0.87 | Middle Group |
| Croydon | 0.97 | Middle Group |
| Cumbria county council | -0.79 | Middle Group |
| Darlington | -0.41 | Middle Group |
| Denbighshire county council | -0.46 | Middle Group |
| Derby | -0.21 | Middle Group |
| Derbyshire county council | -0.24 | Middle Group |
| Devon county council | 0.14 | Middle Group |
| Doncaster | -0.90 | Middle Group |
| Dorset | 0.01 | Middle Group |
| Dudley | -0.23 | Middle Group |
| Dumfries and Galloway | -1.55 | Least Favourable |
| Dundee city | -0.34 | Middle Group |
| Durham county council | -1.70 | Least Favourable |
| Ealing | 2.86 | Most Favourable |
| East Ayrshire | -1.03 | Unfavourable |
| East Dunbartonshire | -0.86 | Middle Group |
| East Lothian | -0.28 | Middle Group |
| East Renfrewshire | -0.63 | Middle Group |
| East Riding of Yorkshire | -0.52 | Middle Group |
| East Sussex county council | 0.61 | Middle Group |
| Enfield | 1.39 | Favourable |
| Essex county council | 0.36 | Middle Group |
| Falkirk | -0.76 | Middle Group |
| Fife | -0.99 | Middle Group |
| Flintshire county council | -0.41 | Middle Group |
| Gateshead | -1.58 | Least Favourable |
| Glasgow | -0.84 | Middle Group |
| Gloucestershire county council | 0.54 | Middle Group |
| Greenwich | 0.97 | Middle Group |
| Gwynedd | -0.43 | Middle Group |
| Hackney | 1.46 | Favourable |
| Halton | -0.54 | Middle Group |
| Hammersmith and Fulham | 1.34 | Favourable |
| Hampshire county council | 0.60 | Middle Group |
| Haringey | 1.39 | Favourable |
| Harrow | 2.88 | Most Favourable |
| Hartlepool | -1.08 | Unfavourable |
| Havering | 0.68 | Middle Group |
| Herefordshire | 0.95 | Middle Group |
| Hertfordshire county council | 1.83 | Favourable |
| Highland | -0.26 | Middle Group |
| Hillingdon | 2.17 | Most Favourable |
| Hounslow | 2.85 | Most Favourable |
| Inverclyde | -0.95 | Middle Group |
| Isle of Anglesey | -0.46 | Middle Group |
| Isle of Wight | 0.16 | Middle Group |
| Islington | 1.37 | Favourable |
| Kensington and Chelsea | 1.49 | Favourable |
| Kent county council | 0.60 | Middle Group |
| Hull | -1.20 | Unfavourable |
| Kingston upon Thames | 1.06 | Favourable |
| Kirklees | -1.02 | Unfavourable |
| Knowsley | -0.60 | Middle Group |
| Lambeth | 1.59 | Favourable |
| Lancashire county council | -0.42 | Middle Group |
| Leeds | -0.21 | Middle Group |
| Leicester | 0.60 | Middle Group |
| Leicestershire county council | 0.10 | Middle Group |
| Lewisham | 1.36 | Favourable |
| Lincolnshire county council | -0.68 | Middle Group |
| Liverpool | -0.29 | Middle Group |
| Luton | 1.34 | Favourable |
| Manchester | -0.22 | Middle Group |
| Medway | -0.30 | Middle Group |
| Merthyr Tydfil | -0.37 | Middle Group |
| Merton | 0.83 | Middle Group |
| Middlesbrough | -0.45 | Middle Group |
| Midlothian | -0.52 | Middle Group |
| Milton Keynes | 0.98 | Middle Group |
| Monmouthshire county council | -0.49 | Middle Group |
| Moray | -0.41 | Middle Group |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | -0.44 | Middle Group |
| Neath Port Talbot | -0.50 | Middle Group |
| Newcastle upon Tyne | -1.16 | Unfavourable |
| Newham | 1.26 | Favourable |
| Newport | -0.50 | Middle Group |
| North Ayrshire | -1.09 | Unfavourable |
| North East Lincolnshire | -1.11 | Unfavourable |
| North Lanarkshire | -1.96 | Least Favourable |
| North Lincolnshire | -0.89 | Middle Group |
| North Northamptonshire | -0.87 | Middle Group |
| North Tyneside | -1.15 | Unfavourable |
| North Yorkshire county council | -0.13 | Middle Group |
| Northern Ireland | -1.52 | Least Favourable |
| Northumberland county council | -1.38 | Unfavourable |
| Norfolk county council | -0.32 | Middle Group |
| Nottingham | -0.23 | Middle Group |
| Nottinghamshire county council | -0.60 | Middle Group |
| Oldham | -0.35 | Middle Group |
| Orkney Islands | -0.03 | Middle Group |
| Oxfordshire county council | 0.61 | Middle Group |
| Pembrokeshire county council | -0.41 | Middle Group |
| Perth and Kinross | -0.63 | Middle Group |
| Peterborough | -0.52 | Middle Group |
| Plymouth | -0.65 | Middle Group |
| Portsmouth | 0.36 | Middle Group |
| Powys county council | 0.13 | Middle Group |
| Reading | 0.73 | Middle Group |
| Redbridge | 2.05 | Most Favourable |
| Redcar and Cleveland | -0.66 | Middle Group |
| Renfrewshire | -1.21 | Unfavourable |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | -0.96 | Middle Group |
| Richmond upon Thames | 2.45 | Most Favourable |
| Rochdale | -1.06 | Unfavourable |
| Rotherham | -0.94 | Middle Group |
| Rutland county council | -0.52 | Middle Group |
| Salford | -0.38 | Middle Group |
| Sandwell | -0.83 | Middle Group |
| Scottish Borders | -1.62 | Least Favourable |
| Sefton | 0.28 | Middle Group |
| Sheffield | 0.02 | Middle Group |
| Shetland Islands | -0.01 | Middle Group |
| Shropshire | -0.03 | Middle Group |
| Slough | 0.58 | Middle Group |
| Solihull | 0.20 | Middle Group |
| Somerset county council | -0.49 | Middle Group |
| South Ayrshire | -0.79 | Middle Group |
| South Lanarkshire | -0.96 | Middle Group |
| South Tyneside | -1.77 | Least Favourable |
| Southampton | 0.92 | Middle Group |
| Southend-on-Sea | 0.67 | Middle Group |
| Southwark | 1.80 | Favourable |
| St Helens | -0.74 | Middle Group |
| Staffordshire county council | -0.44 | Middle Group |
| Stirling | -0.50 | Middle Group |
| Stockport | 0.47 | Middle Group |
| Stockton-on-Tees | -0.92 | Middle Group |
| Stoke-on-Trent | 0.08 | Middle Group |
| Suffolk county council | -0.62 | Middle Group |
| Sunderland | -1.62 | Least Favourable |
| Surrey county council | 2.43 | Most Favourable |
| Sutton | 0.41 | Middle Group |
| Swansea | 0.14 | Middle Group |
| Swindon | -0.51 | Middle Group |
| Tameside | -0.91 | Middle Group |
| Telford and Wrekin | -0.31 | Middle Group |
| Thurrock | 0.27 | Middle Group |
| Torbay | -0.22 | Middle Group |
| Torfaen | -0.81 | Middle Group |
| Tower Hamlets | 1.26 | Favourable |
| Trafford | 0.11 | Middle Group |
| Vale of Glamorgan | -0.18 | Middle Group |
| Wakefield | -1.26 | Unfavourable |
| Walsall | -0.63 | Middle Group |
| Waltham Forest | 0.77 | Middle Group |
| Wandsworth | 1.54 | Favourable |
| Warrington | 0.35 | Middle Group |
| Warwickshire county council | 1.06 | Favourable |
| West Berkshire | 0.60 | Middle Group |
| West Dunbartonshire | -0.80 | Middle Group |
| West Lothian | -0.73 | Middle Group |
| West Northamptonshire | 0.32 | Middle Group |
| West Sussex county council | 0.73 | Middle Group |
| Westminster | 0.99 | Middle Group |
| Wigan | -0.62 | Middle Group |
| Wiltshire | 0.17 | Middle Group |
| Windsor and Maidenhead | 0.78 | Middle Group |
| Wirral | -0.53 | Middle Group |
| Wokingham | 0.89 | Middle Group |
| Wolverhampton | -0.81 | Middle Group |
| Worcestershire county council | 0.57 | Middle Group |
| Wrexham | -0.35 | Middle Group |
| City of York | 0.17 | Middle Group |
Download
For the full download file, see Download the data.
Summary main findings
Most local authorities have scores near to the average on the index of promising prospects – this means there is little difference between them.
Young people brought up in some London boroughs – as well as the Surrey county council, Hertfordshire county council and Buckinghamshire county council areas – have the most ‘promising prospects’. This means they tend to have higher qualifications, earn more, and be in higher occupation levels by 25 to 44 years old.
Outside London and the home counties, Cheshire East and Warwickshire county council area also have promising prospects for young people.
There are less favourable prospects for young people who grew up in some parts of the North East, including:
- Newcastle upon Tyne
- Sunderland
- Gateshead
- Hartlepool
- South Tyneside
- Northumberland county council
- Durham county council
About the data
Data source(s)
Labour Force Survey (LFS), Office for National Statistics
Time period
2018 to 2022 combined
Geographic area
UK
What the data measures
This index brings together 4 measures of promising prospects for young people, as measured by their levels of education, occupational positions and earnings.
This page combines data from the following 4 measures into a single 'composite' score:
- Highest qualification – net levels of a university degree among young people in each area after controlling for socio-economic background (SEB)
- Occupational level of 25 to 44 year olds (professional class occupation) – net percentages of people in professional class jobs in each area after controlling for SEB
- Occupational level of 25 to 44 year olds (working class occupation) – net percentages of people in working class jobs in each area after controlling for SEB
- Earnings of 25 to 44 year olds – mean hourly earnings among people in each area after controlling for SEB
The index of promising prospects adjusts for socio-economic background, and measures how well young people from similar backgrounds do in education and employment.
Things you need to know
The areas shown are where respondents lived when they were aged 14 years.
To increase the number of survey respondents, we have combined the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ professional classes into a single category. We have done the same with the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ working classes.
Data constraints mean that Northern Ireland has to be treated as a single unit. Local authorities have had to be combined in a few other cases.
The unit used for this index is the 'Z-score'. This is a type of statistical measurement which can be used to tell us how likely it is that a region is different to the UK average.
The values shown are not percentages, and the difference between regions cannot be compared in percentage terms.
The Z-scores are used to put regions into one of five groups, according to a set of thresholds for each group. Please see our technical annex for more information on how each area was scored.
Type of data
Survey data
Download the data
Download full dataset (CSV, 33KB)
This file contains the following variables:
- Indicator code
- Indicator name
- Area type
- Area code
- Area name
- Time period
- Socio-economic background
- Sex
- Category type
- Category
- Category type2
- Category2
- Unit
Page history
Publication release date:
11 September 2024