Promising prospects

Published: 29 October 2026
see all updates

Data on the UK local authorities with the most 'promising prospects' for 25 to 44 year olds over time – measured by levels of education, professional work, and earnings. The index measures how well young people from similar socio-economic backgrounds do in education and the labour market.

Visualisation

Index of 'promising prospects', by local authority (UK)

205 local authority areas in the UK are put into 7 categories based on their ‘index of promising prospects’ composite scores. The categories are not equally sized – the middle category is larger because most local authorities are very near the average. Areas with the highest scores have the most favourable prospects for young people.

Least
Favourable
Unfavourable
Middle
Group
Favourable
Most
Favourable
Least
Favourable
Unfavourable
Lower
Middling
Middling
Upper
Middling
Favourable
Most
Favourable
Bottom
5%
Bottom
15-5%
Bottom
30-15%
30 - 70%
Top
15-30%
Top
5-15%
Top
5%

Data

Index of 'promising prospects', by local authority (UK)
Region 2022 to 2025 2018 to 2021
Index of 'promising prospects' ('Z-scores') Group Index of 'promising prospects' ('Z-scores') Group
Aberdeen City 0.48 30-70% -0.11 30-70%
Aberdeenshire 0.04 30-70% 0.06 30-70%
Angus -0.90 Bottom 30-15% -0.44 30-70%
Argyll and Bute Islands 0.64 Top 15-30% -0.52 Bottom 30-15%
Barking and Dagenham 0.01 30-70% 0.52 Top 15-30%
Barnet 1.51 Top 5% 2.98 Top 5%
Barnsley -1.69 Bottom 5% -1.45 Bottom 15-5%
Bath and North East Somerset 0.26 30-70% 0.51 Top 15-30%
Bedford 0.76 Top 15-30% 2.04 Top 5%
Bexley 1.24 Top 5-15% 1.15 Top 5-15%
Birmingham -0.94 Bottom 30-15% -0.31 30-70%
Blackburn with Darwen -0.04 30-70% -0.55 Bottom 30-15%
Blackpool -0.35 30-70% -0.30 30-70%
Blaenau Gwent -0.35 30-70% -0.91 Bottom 30-15%
Bolton -0.40 30-70% -0.38 30-70%
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 0.81 Top 15-30% 0.22 30-70%
Bracknell Forest 1.52 Top 5% 0.65 Top 15-30%
Bradford 0.34 30-70% -0.99 Bottom 30-15%
Brent 2.08 Top 5% 2.83 Top 5%
Bridgend -0.26 30-70% -0.96 Bottom 30-15%
Brighton and Hove 0.36 30-70% 1.40 Top 5-15%
Bristol, City of -0.46 30-70% 0.13 30-70%
Bromley 0.40 30-70% 0.69 Top 15-30%
Buckinghamshire 1.16 Top 5-15% 1.77 Top 5%
Bury -0.04 30-70% -0.43 30-70%
Caerphilly -0.92 Bottom 30-15% -1.10 Bottom 15-5%
Calderdale -0.24 30-70% -0.30 30-70%
Cambridgeshire CC -0.11 30-70% -0.47 30-70%
Camden and City of London 1.46 Top 5-15% 1.92 Top 5%
Cardiff -0.38 30-70% -0.44 30-70%
Carmarthenshire -0.68 Bottom 30-15% -0.33 30-70%
Central Bedfordshire 0.17 30-70% 1.78 Top 5%
Ceredigion -0.35 30-70% -0.72 Bottom 30-15%
Cheshire East 1.20 Top 5-15% 0.69 Top 15-30%
Cheshire West and Chester 1.06 Top 5-15% -0.55 Bottom 30-15%
City of Edinburgh 1.46 Top 5-15% 0.48 30-70%
Clackmannanshire -0.67 Bottom 30-15% -0.52 Bottom 30-15%
Conwy 0.14 30-70% -0.58 Bottom 30-15%
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly -0.13 30-70% -1.50 Bottom 5%
Coventry -0.28 30-70% -0.63 Bottom 30-15%
Croydon 0.61 Top 15-30% 0.82 Top 15-30%
Cumbria -1.28 Bottom 15-5% -0.55 Bottom 30-15%
Darlington -0.45 30-70% -0.73 Bottom 30-15%
Denbighshire -0.17 30-70% -0.65 Bottom 30-15%
Derby -0.51 Bottom 30-15% -0.17 30-70%
Derbyshire -1.54 Bottom 5% -0.16 30-70%
Devon CC -1.49 Bottom 15-5% 0.52 Top 15-30%
Doncaster -1.76 Bottom 5% -0.72 Bottom 30-15%
Dorset 0.69 Top 15-30% 0.07 30-70%
Dudley 0.32 30-70% -0.44 30-70%
Dumfries and Galloway -1.50 Bottom 5% -1.58 Bottom 5%
Dundee City -0.57 Bottom 30-15% -0.25 30-70%
Durham -1.76 Bottom 5% -1.68 Bottom 5%
Ealing 2.08 Top 5% 3.06 Top 5%
East Ayrshire -1.36 Bottom 15-5% -1.06 Bottom 15-5%
East Dunbartonshire -0.53 Bottom 30-15% -0.91 Bottom 30-15%
East Lothian -0.55 Bottom 30-15% -0.33 30-70%
East Renfrewshire -0.07 30-70% -0.73 Bottom 30-15%
East Riding of Yorkshire -0.81 Bottom 30-15% -0.49 30-70%
East Sussex CC 0.03 30-70% 1.09 Top 5-15%
Enfield 1.92 Top 5% 1.24 Top 5-15%
Essex -0.10 30-70% 0.33 30-70%
Falkirk -1.31 Bottom 15-5% -0.66 Bottom 30-15%
Fife -1.79 Bottom 5% -0.73 Bottom 30-15%
Flintshire 0.22 30-70% -0.55 Bottom 30-15%
Gateshead -2.03 Bottom 5% -1.44 Bottom 15-5%
Glasgow City -0.40 30-70% -0.97 Bottom 30-15%
Gloucestershire CC 0.26 30-70% 0.49 30-70%
Greenwich 1.12 Top 5-15% 0.66 Top 15-30%
Gwynedd 0.62 Top 15-30% -0.75 Bottom 30-15%
Hackney 1.26 Top 5-15% 1.45 Top 5-15%
Halton 0.05 30-70% -0.52 Bottom 30-15%
Hammersmith and Fulham 0.34 30-70% 1.43 Top 5-15%
Hampshire -0.65 Bottom 30-15% 0.85 Top 15-30%
Haringey 1.18 Top 5-15% 1.29 Top 5-15%
Harrow 2.22 Top 5% 3.02 Top 5%
Hartlepool -1.15 Bottom 15-5% -1.15 Bottom 15-5%
Havering 1.37 Top 5-15% 0.46 30-70%
Herefordshire, County of 0.52 Top 15-30% 0.96 Top 15-30%
Hertfordshire CC 2.29 Top 5% 1.80 Top 5%
Highland 0.11 30-70% -0.31 30-70%
Hillingdon 1.95 Top 5% 2.29 Top 5%
Hounslow 1.89 Top 5% 3.02 Top 5%
Inverclyde -0.10 30-70% -1.04 Bottom 15-5%
Isle of Anglesey 0.16 30-70% -0.74 Bottom 30-15%
Isle of Wight -0.25 30-70% 0.40 30-70%
Islington 1.15 Top 5-15% 1.44 Top 5-15%
Kensington and Chelsea 0.31 30-70% 1.50 Top 5-15%
Kent 0.50 30-70% 0.66 Top 15-30%
Kingston upon Hull, City of -1.77 Bottom 5% -0.95 Bottom 30-15%
Kingston upon Thames 0.41 30-70% 0.82 Top 15-30%
Kirklees 0.03 30-70% -0.95 Bottom 30-15%
Knowsley -0.01 30-70% -0.52 Bottom 30-15%
Lambeth 1.20 Top 5-15% 1.52 Top 5%
Lancashire -0.32 30-70% -0.29 30-70%
Leeds 0.24 30-70% -0.25 30-70%
Leicester 0.92 Top 15-30% 0.43 30-70%
Leicestershire CC 0.03 30-70% 0.20 30-70%
Lewisham 2.07 Top 5% 1.33 Top 5-15%
Lincolnshire CC -1.36 Bottom 15-5% -0.40 30-70%
Liverpool 0.03 30-70% -0.34 30-70%
Luton 1.28 Top 5-15% 1.62 Top 5%
Manchester -0.37 30-70% -0.45 30-70%
Medway -0.85 Bottom 30-15% 0.10 30-70%
Merthyr Tydfil 0.11 30-70% -0.71 Bottom 30-15%
Merton 0.91 Top 15-30% 0.62 Top 15-30%
Middlesbrough -1.01 Bottom 15-5% -0.59 Bottom 30-15%
Midlothian -0.72 Bottom 30-15% -0.46 30-70%
Milton Keynes 1.70 Top 5% 0.87 Top 15-30%
Monmouthshire 0.48 30-70% -0.58 Bottom 30-15%
Moray 0.49 30-70% -0.47 30-70%
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0.46 30-70% -0.48 30-70%
Neath Port Talbot -0.43 30-70% -0.81 Bottom 30-15%
Newcastle upon Tyne -0.62 Bottom 30-15% -1.18 Bottom 15-5%
Newham 1.59 Top 5% 1.18 Top 5-15%
Newport -0.53 Bottom 30-15% -0.41 30-70%
North Ayrshire mainland -1.61 Bottom 5% -1.13 Bottom 15-5%
North East Lincolnshire -1.81 Bottom 5% -0.84 Bottom 30-15%
North Lanarkshire 0.00 30-70% -1.88 Bottom 5%
North Lincolnshire -1.27 Bottom 15-5% -0.72 Bottom 30-15%
North Northamptonshire -0.48 30-70% -0.49 30-70%
North Somerset -0.14 30-70% -0.03 30-70%
North Tyneside -2.08 Bottom 5% -0.93 Bottom 30-15%
North Yorkshire CC -0.74 Bottom 30-15% 0.12 30-70%
Northern Ireland -2.50 Bottom 5% -1.28 Bottom 15-5%
Northumberland -1.49 Bottom 15-5% -1.17 Bottom 15-5%
Norwich and Norfolk 0.02 30-70% -0.48 30-70%
Nottingham -0.23 30-70% -0.17 30-70%
Nottinghamshire -0.60 Bottom 30-15% -0.57 Bottom 30-15%
Oldham -1.07 Bottom 15-5% -0.40 30-70%
Orkney Islands 0.35 30-70% -0.15 30-70%
Oxfordshire CC 1.84 Top 5% 0.57 Top 15-30%
Pembrokeshire -0.25 30-70% -0.57 Bottom 30-15%
Perth and Kinross 0.04 30-70% -0.72 Bottom 30-15%
Peterborough 0.01 30-70% -0.58 Bottom 30-15%
Plymouth -1.02 Bottom 15-5% -0.36 30-70%
Portsmouth -0.57 Bottom 30-15% 0.58 Top 15-30%
Powys 0.23 30-70% -0.06 30-70%
Reading 1.35 Top 5-15% 0.64 Top 15-30%
Redbridge 1.81 Top 5% 1.53 Top 5%
Redcar and Cleveland -0.56 Bottom 30-15% -0.95 Bottom 30-15%
Renfrewshire -0.44 30-70% -1.07 Bottom 15-5%
Rhondda Cynon Taf -1.51 Bottom 5% -0.80 Bottom 30-15%
Richmond upon Thames 1.73 Top 5% 2.70 Top 5%
Rochdale -0.42 30-70% -0.92 Bottom 30-15%
Rotherham -1.81 Bottom 5% -0.54 Bottom 30-15%
Rutland 0.07 30-70% -0.31 30-70%
Salford 0.09 30-70% -0.72 Bottom 30-15%
Sandwell -0.86 Bottom 30-15% -0.78 Bottom 30-15%
Scottish Borders -1.69 Bottom 5% -1.51 Bottom 5%
Sefton 0.43 30-70% 0.20 30-70%
Sheffield -0.32 30-70% 0.09 30-70%
Shetland Islands 0.33 30-70% -0.18 30-70%
Shropshire 0.05 30-70% -0.24 30-70%
Slough 1.70 Top 5% 0.69 Top 15-30%
Solihull 0.86 Top 15-30% 0.02 30-70%
Somerset CC -0.49 30-70% -0.30 30-70%
South Ayrshire -1.89 Bottom 5% -1.01 Bottom 15-5%
South Gloucestershire -0.00 30-70% 0.17 30-70%
South Lanarkshire -0.30 30-70% -1.15 Bottom 15-5%
South Tyneside -1.42 Bottom 15-5% -1.56 Bottom 5%
Southampton 0.14 30-70% 0.66 Top 15-30%
Southend-on-Sea -0.04 30-70% 0.53 Top 15-30%
Southwark 1.88 Top 5% 1.70 Top 5%
St Helens -0.03 30-70% -0.64 Bottom 30-15%
Staffordshire CC 0.27 30-70% -0.49 30-70%
Stirling -1.04 Bottom 15-5% -0.20 30-70%
Stockport 0.17 30-70% 0.20 30-70%
Stockton-on-Tees -1.39 Bottom 15-5% -1.02 Bottom 15-5%
Stoke-on-Trent 0.97 Top 15-30% -0.12 30-70%
Suffolk CC -0.31 30-70% -0.58 Bottom 30-15%
Sunderland -1.35 Bottom 15-5% -1.59 Bottom 5%
Surrey 1.55 Top 5% 2.48 Top 5%
Sutton 0.61 Top 15-30% 0.38 30-70%
Swansea 0.26 30-70% -0.10 30-70%
Swindon -0.89 Bottom 30-15% -0.21 30-70%
Tameside -1.38 Bottom 15-5% -0.70 Bottom 30-15%
Telford and Wrekin -0.36 30-70% -0.36 30-70%
Thurrock 0.00 30-70% 0.15 30-70%
Torbay -0.28 30-70% -0.25 30-70%
Torfaen 0.09 30-70% -1.08 Bottom 15-5%
Tower Hamlets 1.08 Top 5-15% 1.11 Top 5-15%
Trafford -0.43 30-70% -0.03 30-70%
Vale of Glamorgan 0.12 30-70% -0.28 30-70%
Wakefield -0.28 30-70% -1.24 Bottom 15-5%
Walsall -1.07 Bottom 15-5% -0.35 30-70%
Waltham Forest 1.30 Top 5-15% 0.74 Top 15-30%
Wandsworth 0.42 30-70% 1.42 Top 5-15%
Warrington 0.80 Top 15-30% 0.14 30-70%
Warwickshire CC 1.39 Top 5-15% 0.95 Top 15-30%
West Berkshire 1.41 Top 5-15% 0.60 Top 15-30%
West Dunbartonshire -0.50 30-70% -0.93 Bottom 30-15%
West Lothian -0.17 30-70% -0.74 Bottom 30-15%
West Northamptonshire 0.46 30-70% 0.33 30-70%
West Sussex -0.12 30-70% 0.99 Top 15-30%
Westminster -0.05 30-70% 1.18 Top 5-15%
Wigan -0.67 Bottom 30-15% -0.59 Bottom 30-15%
Wiltshire -0.96 Bottom 30-15% 0.50 30-70%
Windsor and Maidenhead 1.52 Top 5% 0.75 Top 15-30%
Wirral 0.48 30-70% -0.71 Bottom 30-15%
Wokingham 1.28 Top 5-15% 0.87 Top 15-30%
Wolverhampton -0.44 30-70% -0.74 Bottom 30-15%
Worcestershire CC 0.03 30-70% 0.78 Top 15-30%
Wrexham 0.24 30-70% -0.47 30-70%
York -0.92 Bottom 30-15% 0.50 30-70%
  • Download the data (CSV, 11KB)

    • Download

    For the full download file, see Download the data.

    Summary main findings

    Across the 2 time periods covered by the data – 4 years to 2021, and 4 years to 2025 – most local authorities had scores close to the average on the index of promising prospects. This means there was little difference between them.

    In the 4 years to 2025, young people brought up in some London boroughs – as well as the Surrey and Hertfordshire county council areas – had the most ‘promising prospects’. This means they tended to have higher qualifications, earned more, and were in higher occupation levels by 25 to 44 years old compared with young people in other regions from similar socio-economic backgrounds.

    Outside London and the home counties, Warwickshire county council and the City of Edinburgh were in the top 5 to 15% of areas in the UK on the index of promising prospects for young people.

    There were less favourable prospects for young people who grew up in Northern Ireland, some parts of Scotland, Rhondda Cynon Taf in Wales, and some parts of the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber, including:

    • Hull
    • Sunderland
    • Gateshead
    • Barnsley
    • Durham

    Between the 2 time periods, the scores of the index of promising prospects remained stable. London boroughs continued to have the highest conditions, while there was slightly more change among the areas with the lowest scores.

    About the data

    Data source(s)

    Labour Force Survey (LFS), Office for National Statistics

    Time period

    • 2018 to 2021 combined
    • 2022 to 2025 combined

    Geographic area

    UK

    What the data measures

    This index brings together 4 measures of promising prospects for young people, as measured by their levels of education, occupational levels, and earnings.

    This page combines data from the following 4 measures into a single 'composite' score:

    The index of promising prospects adjusts for socio-economic background. It measures how well young people from similar backgrounds do in education and employment.

    Things you need to know

    The areas shown are where respondents lived when they were aged 14 years.

    To increase the number of survey respondents, we have combined:

    • the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ professional classes into a single ‘professional’ category
    • the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ working classes into a single ‘working class’ category

    Data constraints mean that Northern Ireland has to be treated as a single unit. Local authorities have had to be combined in a few other cases.

    The unit used for this index is the 'Z-score'. This is a type of statistical measurement which can be used to tell us how likely it is that a region is different to the UK average.

    The values shown are not percentages, and the difference between regions cannot be compared in percentage terms.

    The Z-scores are used to put regions into one of 7 groups, according to a set of thresholds for each group. See our technical annex for more information on how each area was scored.

    Type of data

    Survey data

    Download the data

    Download full dataset (CSV, 71KB)

    This file contains the following variables:

    • Measure code
    • Measure title
    • Chart type
    • Area type
    • Area name
    • Primary split type
    • Primary split value
    • Secondary split type
    • Secondary split value
    • Time period
    • Value
    • Unit
    • Group number
    • Split order

    Page history

    Publication release date:

    29 October 2026

    Editions of this page:

    This page replaces:

    This is a new website - your feedback will help us to improve it.