Promising prospects

Published: 18 December 2025
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Data on the UK local authorities with the most 'promising prospects' for 25 to 44 year olds over time – measured by levels of education, professional work, and earnings. The index measures how well young people from similar socio-economic backgrounds do in education and the labour market.

Visualisation

Index of 'promising prospects', by local authority (UK)

205 local authority areas in the UK are put into 7 categories based on their ‘index of promising prospects’ composite scores. The categories are not equally sized – the middle category is larger because most local authorities are very near the average. Areas with the highest scores have the most favourable prospects for young people.

Least
Favourable
Unfavourable
Middle
Group
Favourable
Most
Favourable
Least
Favourable
Unfavourable
Lower
Middling
Middling
Upper
Middling
Favourable
Most
Favourable

Data

Index of 'promising prospects', by local authority (UK)
Region 2021 to 2024 2018 to 2020
Index of 'promising prospects' ('Z-scores') Group Index of 'promising prospects' ('Z-scores') Group
Aberdeen City 0.52 Upper Middling -0.24 Middling
Aberdeenshire 0.22 Middling -0.15 Middling
Angus -0.65 Lower Middling -0.56 Lower Middling
Argyll and Bute Islands 0.53 Upper Middling -0.63 Lower Middling
Barking and Dagenham 0.07 Middling 0.57 Upper Middling
Barnet 2.33 Most Favourable 2.85 Most Favourable
Barnsley -1.73 Least Favourable -1.39 Unfavourable
Bath and North East Somerset 0.49 Middling 0.54 Upper Middling
Bedford 1.32 Favourable 1.84 Most Favourable
Bexley 1.27 Favourable 1.13 Favourable
Birmingham -0.46 Middling -0.55 Lower Middling
Blackburn with Darwen 0.24 Middling -0.91 Lower Middling
Blackpool -0.16 Middling -0.46 Middling
Blaenau Gwent -0.77 Lower Middling -0.72 Lower Middling
Bolton -0.67 Lower Middling -0.24 Middling
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 0.88 Upper Middling 0.10 Middling
Bracknell Forest 0.47 Middling 1.28 Favourable
Bradford -0.05 Middling -1.08 Unfavourable
Brent 2.55 Most Favourable 2.68 Most Favourable
Bridgend -0.86 Lower Middling -0.73 Lower Middling
Brighton and Hove 1.14 Favourable 1.02 Favourable
Bristol, City of -0.18 Middling 0.16 Middling
Bromley 0.52 Upper Middling 0.51 Upper Middling
Buckinghamshire 1.06 Favourable 2.15 Most Favourable
Bury 0.07 Middling -0.65 Lower Middling
Caerphilly -1.00 Unfavourable -1.17 Unfavourable
Calderdale -0.12 Middling -0.47 Middling
Cambridgeshire CC -0.12 Middling -0.49 Middling
Camden and City of London 1.67 Most Favourable 1.89 Most Favourable
Cardiff -0.98 Lower Middling -0.01 Middling
Carmarthenshire -0.99 Lower Middling 0.01 Middling
Central Bedfordshire 0.62 Upper Middling 1.84 Most Favourable
Ceredigion -0.54 Lower Middling -0.62 Lower Middling
Cheshire East 0.98 Upper Middling 0.78 Upper Middling
Cheshire West and Chester 0.26 Middling -0.45 Middling
City of Edinburgh 1.26 Favourable 0.35 Middling
Clackmannanshire -0.58 Lower Middling -0.64 Lower Middling
Conwy -0.20 Middling -0.44 Middling
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly -0.71 Lower Middling -1.41 Unfavourable
Coventry -0.54 Lower Middling -0.57 Lower Middling
Croydon 0.88 Upper Middling 0.66 Upper Middling
Cumbria -1.08 Unfavourable -0.53 Lower Middling
Darlington -0.53 Lower Middling -0.82 Lower Middling
Denbighshire -0.65 Lower Middling -0.37 Middling
Derby -0.57 Lower Middling -0.01 Middling
Derbyshire -1.17 Unfavourable -0.04 Middling
Devon CC -1.14 Unfavourable 0.94 Upper Middling
Doncaster -1.50 Least Favourable -0.71 Lower Middling
Dorset 0.78 Upper Middling -0.09 Middling
Dudley 0.41 Middling -0.76 Lower Middling
Dumfries and Galloway -1.57 Least Favourable -1.64 Least Favourable
Dundee City -0.07 Middling -0.54 Lower Middling
Durham -1.79 Least Favourable -1.69 Least Favourable
Ealing 2.67 Most Favourable 2.92 Most Favourable
East Ayrshire -0.87 Lower Middling -1.41 Unfavourable
East Dunbartonshire -0.73 Lower Middling -0.87 Lower Middling
East Lothian -0.30 Middling -0.45 Middling
East Renfrewshire -0.35 Middling -0.70 Lower Middling
East Riding of Yorkshire -0.93 Lower Middling -0.30 Middling
East Sussex CC 1.08 Favourable 0.52 Upper Middling
Enfield 2.24 Most Favourable 0.92 Upper Middling
Essex -0.23 Middling 0.65 Upper Middling
Falkirk -0.57 Lower Middling -1.06 Unfavourable
Fife -1.29 Unfavourable -0.86 Lower Middling
Flintshire -0.69 Lower Middling -0.01 Middling
Gateshead -1.74 Least Favourable -1.57 Least Favourable
Glasgow City -0.45 Middling -1.13 Unfavourable
Gloucestershire CC 0.16 Middling 0.73 Upper Middling
Greenwich 1.04 Favourable 0.61 Upper Middling
Gwynedd 0.11 Middling -0.68 Lower Middling
Hackney 1.83 Most Favourable 0.97 Upper Middling
Halton 0.25 Middling -0.86 Lower Middling
Hammersmith and Fulham 0.74 Upper Middling 1.22 Favourable
Hampshire -0.23 Middling 1.10 Favourable
Haringey 1.47 Favourable 1.01 Favourable
Harrow 2.83 Most Favourable 2.85 Most Favourable
Hartlepool -1.16 Unfavourable -1.11 Unfavourable
Havering 0.75 Upper Middling 0.77 Upper Middling
Herefordshire, County of 0.60 Upper Middling 1.04 Favourable
Hertfordshire CC 1.96 Most Favourable 1.94 Most Favourable
Highland 0.01 Middling -0.34 Middling
Hillingdon 2.10 Most Favourable 2.25 Most Favourable
Hounslow 2.44 Most Favourable 2.94 Most Favourable
Inverclyde -0.18 Middling -1.20 Unfavourable
Isle of Anglesey -0.48 Middling -0.43 Middling
Isle of Wight -0.48 Middling 0.77 Upper Middling
Islington 1.68 Most Favourable 0.95 Upper Middling
Kensington and Chelsea 0.53 Upper Middling 1.45 Favourable
Kent 0.47 Middling 0.76 Upper Middling
Kingston upon Hull, City of -1.52 Least Favourable -0.93 Lower Middling
Kingston upon Thames 0.56 Upper Middling 0.73 Upper Middling
Kirklees -0.31 Middling -0.95 Lower Middling
Knowsley -0.12 Middling -0.57 Lower Middling
Lambeth 1.69 Most Favourable 1.14 Favourable
Lancashire -0.15 Middling -0.46 Middling
Leeds 0.42 Middling -0.51 Lower Middling
Leicester 0.42 Middling 0.86 Upper Middling
Leicestershire CC -0.21 Middling 0.54 Upper Middling
Lewisham 2.20 Most Favourable 1.01 Favourable
Lincolnshire CC -1.17 Unfavourable -0.29 Middling
Liverpool -0.22 Middling -0.29 Middling
Luton 1.36 Favourable 1.64 Most Favourable
Manchester -0.20 Middling -0.65 Lower Middling
Medway -0.53 Lower Middling 0.05 Middling
Merthyr Tydfil -0.33 Middling -0.53 Lower Middling
Merton 1.18 Favourable 0.31 Middling
Middlesbrough -0.92 Lower Middling -0.51 Lower Middling
Midlothian -0.55 Lower Middling -0.56 Lower Middling
Milton Keynes 1.47 Favourable 0.86 Upper Middling
Monmouthshire -0.28 Middling -0.23 Middling
Moray 0.03 Middling -0.35 Middling
Na h-Eileanan Siar 0.26 Middling -0.49 Middling
Neath Port Talbot -0.84 Lower Middling -0.57 Lower Middling
Newcastle upon Tyne -0.19 Middling -1.71 Least Favourable
Newham 1.79 Most Favourable 0.85 Upper Middling
Newport -0.94 Lower Middling 0.02 Middling
North Ayrshire mainland -1.25 Unfavourable -1.31 Unfavourable
North East Lincolnshire -1.46 Unfavourable -0.91 Lower Middling
North Lanarkshire -0.64 Lower Middling -1.89 Least Favourable
North Lincolnshire -0.99 Lower Middling -0.86 Lower Middling
North Northamptonshire -0.57 Lower Middling -0.36 Middling
North Somerset -0.52 Lower Middling 0.39 Middling
North Tyneside -1.32 Unfavourable -1.19 Unfavourable
North Yorkshire CC -0.16 Middling -0.23 Middling
Northern Ireland -1.99 Least Favourable -1.44 Unfavourable
Northumberland -1.47 Unfavourable -1.17 Unfavourable
Norwich and Norfolk -0.69 Lower Middling -0.07 Middling
Nottingham -0.16 Middling -0.17 Middling
Nottinghamshire -0.90 Lower Middling -0.30 Middling
Oldham -0.65 Lower Middling -0.65 Lower Middling
Orkney Islands 0.29 Middling -0.15 Middling
Oxfordshire CC 1.20 Favourable 0.68 Upper Middling
Pembrokeshire -0.38 Middling -0.53 Lower Middling
Perth and Kinross -0.39 Middling -0.58 Lower Middling
Peterborough -0.51 Lower Middling -0.34 Middling
Plymouth -1.13 Unfavourable -0.05 Middling
Portsmouth -0.30 Middling 0.74 Upper Middling
Powys 0.15 Middling 0.01 Middling
Reading 0.84 Upper Middling 0.82 Upper Middling
Redbridge 1.91 Most Favourable 1.35 Favourable
Redcar and Cleveland -0.73 Lower Middling -0.90 Lower Middling
Renfrewshire -0.55 Lower Middling -1.15 Unfavourable
Rhondda Cynon Taf -1.61 Least Favourable -0.53 Lower Middling
Richmond upon Thames 2.29 Most Favourable 2.52 Most Favourable
Rochdale -0.51 Lower Middling -0.99 Lower Middling
Rotherham -1.46 Unfavourable -0.49 Middling
Rutland -0.35 Middling 0.03 Middling
Salford -0.25 Middling -0.65 Lower Middling
Sandwell -0.79 Lower Middling -0.86 Lower Middling
Scottish Borders -1.61 Least Favourable -1.61 Least Favourable
Sefton 0.23 Middling 0.31 Middling
Sheffield -0.04 Middling -0.00 Middling
Shetland Islands 0.46 Middling -0.31 Middling
Shropshire -0.15 Middling -0.15 Middling
Slough 1.06 Favourable 0.93 Upper Middling
Solihull 0.85 Upper Middling -0.22 Middling
Somerset CC -0.86 Lower Middling 0.08 Middling
South Ayrshire -1.75 Least Favourable -0.95 Lower Middling
South Gloucestershire -0.11 Middling 0.40 Middling
South Lanarkshire -0.41 Middling -1.36 Unfavourable
South Tyneside -1.15 Unfavourable -1.87 Least Favourable
Southampton -0.00 Middling 1.08 Favourable
Southend-on-Sea 0.06 Middling 0.69 Upper Middling
Southwark 2.04 Most Favourable 1.47 Favourable
St Helens -0.06 Middling -0.81 Lower Middling
Staffordshire CC -0.22 Middling -0.30 Middling
Stirling -0.80 Lower Middling -0.24 Middling
Stockport 0.23 Middling 0.15 Middling
Stockton-on-Tees -1.45 Unfavourable -0.92 Lower Middling
Stoke-on-Trent 0.15 Middling 0.25 Middling
Suffolk CC -0.17 Middling -0.76 Lower Middling
Sunderland -1.62 Least Favourable -1.43 Unfavourable
Surrey 2.08 Most Favourable 2.34 Most Favourable
Sutton 0.72 Upper Middling 0.13 Middling
Swansea -0.29 Middling 0.30 Middling
Swindon -0.90 Lower Middling 0.03 Middling
Tameside -1.01 Unfavourable -0.86 Lower Middling
Telford and Wrekin -0.22 Middling -0.39 Middling
Thurrock 0.10 Middling 0.15 Middling
Torbay -0.52 Lower Middling 0.06 Middling
Torfaen -0.55 Lower Middling -0.87 Lower Middling
Tower Hamlets 1.33 Favourable 0.76 Upper Middling
Trafford -0.10 Middling -0.17 Middling
Vale of Glamorgan -0.41 Middling 0.07 Middling
Wakefield -0.46 Middling -1.40 Unfavourable
Walsall -0.71 Lower Middling -0.47 Middling
Waltham Forest 1.10 Favourable 0.78 Upper Middling
Wandsworth 0.65 Upper Middling 1.41 Favourable
Warrington 0.33 Middling 0.31 Middling
Warwickshire CC 1.40 Favourable 0.84 Upper Middling
West Berkshire 0.49 Middling 1.12 Favourable
West Dunbartonshire -0.65 Lower Middling -0.94 Lower Middling
West Lothian -0.11 Middling -0.89 Lower Middling
West Northamptonshire 0.19 Middling 0.61 Upper Middling
West Sussex 0.42 Middling 0.82 Upper Middling
Westminster 0.19 Middling 1.10 Favourable
Wigan -0.70 Lower Middling -0.58 Lower Middling
Wiltshire -0.33 Middling 0.49 Middling
Windsor and Maidenhead 1.24 Favourable 0.87 Upper Middling
Wirral 0.41 Middling -1.07 Unfavourable
Wokingham 1.02 Favourable 1.05 Favourable
Wolverhampton -0.33 Middling -0.94 Lower Middling
Worcestershire CC 0.02 Middling 1.01 Favourable
Wrexham -0.23 Middling -0.21 Middling
York -0.10 Middling 0.05 Middling
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    Summary main findings

    Across the 2 time periods covered by the data – 3 years to 2020, and 4 years to 2024 – most local authorities had scores close to the average on the index of promising prospects – this means there was little difference between them.

    In the 4 years to 2024, young people brought up in some London boroughs – as well as the Surrey and Hertfordshire county council areas – had the most ‘promising prospects’. This means they tended to have higher qualifications, earned more, and were in higher occupation levels by 25 to 44 years old compared with young people in other regions from similar socio-economic backgrounds.

    Outside London and the home counties, Warwickshire county council and the City of Edinburgh areas also had favourable promising prospects conditions for young people.

    There were less favourable prospects for young people who grew up in Northern Ireland, some parts of Scotland, Rhondda Cynon Taf in Wales, and some parts of the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber, including:

    • Hull
    • Sunderland
    • Gateshead
    • Barnsley
    • Durham

    Between the 2 time periods, the scores of the index of promising prospects remained stable. London boroughs continued to have the most favourable conditions, while there was slightly more change among the areas with the lowest scores.

    About the data

    Data source(s)

    Labour Force Survey (LFS), Office for National Statistics

    Time period

    • 2018 to 2020 combined
    • 2021 to 2024 combined

    Geographic area

    UK

    What the data measures

    This index brings together 4 measures of promising prospects for young people, as measured by their levels of education, occupational levels, and earnings.

    This page combines data from the following 4 measures into a single 'composite' score:

    The index of promising prospects adjusts for socio-economic background. It measures how well young people from similar backgrounds do in education and employment.

    Things you need to know

    The areas shown are where respondents lived when they were aged 14 years.

    To increase the number of survey respondents, we have combined:

    • the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ professional classes into a single ‘professional’ category
    • the ‘higher’ and ‘lower’ working classes into a single ‘working class’ category

    Data constraints mean that Northern Ireland has to be treated as a single unit. Local authorities have had to be combined in a few other cases.

    The unit used for this index is the 'Z-score'. This is a type of statistical measurement which can be used to tell us how likely it is that a region is different to the UK average.

    The values shown are not percentages, and the difference between regions cannot be compared in percentage terms.

    The Z-scores are used to put regions into one of 7 groups, according to a set of thresholds for each group. See our technical annex for more information on how each area was scored.

    Type of data

    Survey data

    Download the data

    Download full dataset (CSV, 75KB)

    This file contains the following variables:

    • Measure code
    • Measure title
    • Chart type
    • Area type
    • Area name
    • Primary split type
    • Primary split value
    • Secondary split type
    • Secondary split value
    • Time period
    • Value
    • Unit
    • Group number

    Page history

    Publication release date:

    18 December 2025

    Editions of this page:

    This page replaces:

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